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  • expert headshot
    R.J. White
    +362
    (54%)
    28-24-2 in Last 54 TB ATS Picks
    CAR +3
    -110
    Spread
    WIN
    Picked: Dec 16 @ 11:02am

    Analysis

    The Bucs offense is as healthy as its been all season, leading to a quality game against the Falcons last week. Of course, the defense did enough to lose the game once again, and that unit continues to struggle with offenses that can throw the ball effectively. Bryce Young proved he can do that at home in the upset of the Rams two weeks ago, so I expect the Panthers to have success on offense. The Carolina defense has played better since getting destroyed by the Bills, and the Panthers are healthy on both sides of the ball. I like them to win this game and I'll definitely take the full field goal.
  • expert headshot
    R.J. White
    Super Stat Geek
    TEN +3.5
    -108
    Spread
    WIN
    Picked: Dec 16 @ 11:19am

    Analysis

    Gardner Minshew has plenty of experience as he steps into the starter role, but I struggle to see how the Chiefs remain motivated over the final three weeks. They've played 3+ postseason games for six straight years, and with nothing on the line in this road game against a bottom-tier team, it feels like this is the ultimate flat spot for Kansas City. The Titans were close to covering for a fifth time in six games last week, and they've scored 24+ against the Seahawks, Browns and 49ers over the last four games. This team isn't quitting, and they'll be hungry for a win over the former juggernaut here.
  • expert headshot
    Bruce Marshall
    #1
    +1578
    (62%)
    48-29-2 in Last 79 NFL ATS Picks
    LAC +2.5
    -112
    Spread
    WIN
    Picked: Dec 16 @ 2:34pm

    Analysis

    The marketplace still seems to be overvaluing the Cowboys, whose playoff hopes could be completely extinguished by the time this one kicks off in Arlington. Dallas should have had more left in the tank for last Sunday 34-26 loss to the Vikings, and the defense starting to resemble its poor form from the first half of the season while allowing 39 ppg in consecutive losses to the Lions and Vikes. As for the Bolts, they're still playing inspired defense while continuing to chase Denver in the AFC West, and Justin Herbert's left wrist has had another week to heal and get him closer to 100%. This is arguably a tougher test for Dallas than others they didn't pass the past two weeks. Play Chargers.
  • expert headshot
    R.J. White
    Super Stat Geek
    Minnesota
    Over 23.5
    -102
    Away Team Total
    LOSS
    Picked: Dec 17 @ 10:20am

    Analysis

    J.J. McCarthy has turned the narrative around with two straight quality performances against NFC East defenses, and he gets potentially the worst one here. The Giants are last in yards per rush, so the Vikings should be able to keep the pressure off McCarthy, and an interception rate that ranks 30th means he just had to avoid idiotic throws to have success. The Giants have allowed 24+ points in eight straight games, and with the Vikings topping 30 in their last two, I think this is good enough value to play and hope the McCarthy crash isn't on the way.
  • expert headshot
    Matt Severance
    +104
    (60%)
    24-16 in Last 40 NFL Player Props Picks
    player headshot
    R. Dowdle
    YES
    +125
    Anytime TD Scorer
    LOSS
    Picked: Dec 17 @ 12:46pm

    Analysis

    Carolina's Rico Dowdle has seven total touchdowns this season, one shy of earning a $250K bonus for an eighth. You don't think his coaches and teammates know that and want to get it ASAP? Dowdle isn't making a bundle this year on a one-year deal. I will share in the Discord room at some point an excellent CBS Sports research document showing all relevant contract incentives that could be hit in Week 16. The Bucs have allowed 16 rushing TDs, among the most in the NFL.

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