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Today's Top Free Expert Picks

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  • expert headshot
    R.J. White
    +391
    (83%)
    5-1 in Last 6 NFL ATS Picks
    NE +3
    -118
    Spread
    Picked: Nov 9 @ 11:03am

    Analysis

    The line has massively adjusted to the Patriots getting torn apart by the Packers at home last week, as this was functionally a pick 'em on the lookahead. I like fading aggressive, non-injury-related shifts like this. The Lions didn't impress in a win over the Dolphins, scoring just one TD and gaining 270 yards against a poor defensive team. The Lions aren't as good as the Packers at generating turnovers as they haven't had multiple in a game since Week 1. The Patriots have a slightly better yards-per-play differential despite playing what I see as a much more difficult schedule than the Lions, so I think there's a world where these teams are still evenly rated, and a pick 'em line would be justified.
  • expert headshot
    Alex Selesnick
    +435.5
    (59%)
    13-9 in Last 22 NFL Player Props Picks
    player headshot
    A. St. Brown
    Over 77.5
    -113
    Receiving Yards
    Picked: Nov 11 @ 1:40am

    Analysis

    This is a great spot to back Amon-Ra St. Brown against a New England pass defense that has really struggled against opposing slot WRs. St. Brown is the league's best slot WR, and he is likely to see a lot of Patriots nickel corner Marcus Jones, who has not played well this season. New England ranks 26th in EPA allowed per dropback, and Christian Gonzalez does not typically travel to the slot. Look for St. Brown to continue to operate as Jared Goff's primary target in a game that could be a shootout.
  • expert headshot
    Will Brinson
    +196
    (57%)
    4-3 in Last 7 NFL Picks
    NE +3
    -118
    Spread
    Picked: Nov 13 @ 8:44am

    Analysis

    I think the Lions will be pretty chalky here given the performance by the Patriots last week, getting blown out by the Packers at home. But the Patriots opened -1.5 (!) here according to our SportsLine data. Which means this line has just shifted too far. A.J. Brown could be back for this game and while the Lions have gotten better on defense, their offense has cooled a lot since the bye, scoring just 20/19/19 points in the last three weeks. They also feasted on terrible defenses in shootouts early in the season. The Patriots are still a good football team and aside from the Packers, a much better offense than the Lions have seen the last three weeks.
  • expert headshot
    Sia Nejad
    +636
    (71%)
    12-5 in Last 17 NFL Player Props Picks
    player headshot
    D. Maye
    Over 1.5
    -130
    Pass TDs
    Picked: Nov 13 @ 1:13pm

    Analysis

    Drake Maye has thrown for 2+ passing touchdowns in six straight games and New England is likely to need to rely on his arm against the Lions. The path to keeping up or beating the Lions is through the air and that is reflected in Maye's passing yards number of 260+. With some injury issues in the backfield, I don't see the Patriots having much success on the ground and it's notable that AJ Brown may be back for this game (not relying on that for purposes of this bet). I'm not sure we'll see a hyper-efficient game from Maye, but I do think the points come through the air over in Germany.
  • expert headshot
    Mike Tierney
    #2
    +1076
    (71%)
    20-8 in Last 28 NFL Picks
    DET -2.5
    -118
    Spread
    Picked: Nov 13 @ 2:27pm

    Analysis

    No more ridiculing Detroit's long-suffering defense, at least for now. The longtime generous giver of points has allowed 15.5 in the past four games, about half of its yield earlier this season. With Patriots RBs Rhamondre Stevenson likely out and TreVeyon Henderson certainly out, QB Drake Maye might have to throw more than he'd like. That would tee up the pass rush for Aidan Hutchinson and sidekicks who excel at pressure. Added to the defensive mix is S Andre Cisco, acquired via trade. We lean toward underdogs in international games, but the small spread leads us to the Lions.

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